Patterns of Death Penalty Abolition, 1960–2005: Domestic and International Factors

On the eve of World War II, eight countries had completely abolished the death penalty and another six had banned it for ordinary crimes. As of early 2008, 92 countries had prohibited capital punishment for all crimes and 10 more had ruled it out for ordinary crimes. The goal of this article is to account for the pattern of national abolition of the death penalty since 1960. We hypothesize that certain kinds of democracies are more liable to end capital punishment than others. Specifically, the negotiated form of democracy produced by parliamentary systems with proportional representation (“consensus democracy” in Lijphart's terms) is more likely to do away with the death penalty than are other forms of democracy. As previous research indicates, democratic transitions also increase the likelihood of abolition. Finally, international influences can also tip countries toward abolition. We suggest that incentives provided by international organizations, particularly in Europe, have drawn some countries toward abolition. The empirical analysis of approximately 150 countries for the period 1960–2005 confirms our expectations.

第二次世界大战前夕，已有8个国家完全废除死刑，另有6个国家针对普通刑事犯罪废除了死刑。截至2008年初，全球已有92个国家全面废除死刑，另有10个国家仅针对普通刑事犯罪废除了死刑。本文旨在阐释1960年以来各国废除死刑的发展格局。本文提出假说：相较于其他政体类型，特定类别的民主国家更倾向于废除死刑。具体而言，由比例代表制议会制度衍生出的协商式民主（即李普哈特所称的共识民主（consensus democracy）），相比其他民主政体，更有可能彻底废除死刑。正如既往研究表明，民主转型同样会提升一国废除死刑的可能性。此外，国际因素同样会推动各国走向废除死刑的进程。本文认为，国际组织（尤其是欧洲地区的国际组织）所提供的激励措施，已促使部分国家迈向废除死刑的道路。针对1960年至2005年间约150个国家的实证分析，验证了本文的前述预期。