Hydrogen Storage for Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles: Expert Elicitation and a Levelized Cost of Driving Model

A cost-effective and compact hydrogen
storage system could advance
fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). Today’s commercial FCEVs
incorporate storage that is projected to be heavier, larger, and costlier
than targets set by the U.S. Driving Research and Innovation for Vehicle
efficiency and Energy sustainability Partnership (U.S. DRIVE). To
inform research and development (R&D), we elicited 31 experts’
assessments of expected future costs and capacities of storage systems.
Experts suggested that systems would approach U.S. DRIVE’s
ultimate capacity targets but fall short of cost targets at a high
production volume. The 2035 and 2050 median costs anticipated by experts
were $13.5 and $10.53/kWhH2, gravimetric capacities
of 5.2 and 5.6 wt %, and volumetric capacities of 0.93 and 1.33 kWhH2/L, respectively. To meet U.S. DRIVE’s
targets, experts recommended allocating the majority of government
hydrogen storage R&D funding to materials development. Furthermore,
we incorporated experts’ cost assessments into a levelized
cost of driving model. Given technical and fuel price uncertainty,
FCEV costs ranged from $0.38 to $0.45/mile ($0.24–$0.28/km)
in 2020, $0.30 to $0.33/mile ($0.19–$0.21/km) in 2035–2050,
and $0.27 to $0.31/mile ($0.17–$0.19/km) in 2050. Depending
on fuel, electricity, and battery prices, our findings suggest that
FCEVs could compete with conventional and alternative fuel vehicles
by 2035.

一款兼具经济性与紧凑性的储氢系统，有望推动燃料电池电动汽车（Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles, FCEVs）的发展。当前商用燃料电池电动汽车搭载的储氢系统，据预测将较美国车辆效率与能源可持续性驾驶研究与创新伙伴关系（U.S. DRIVE）设定的目标更重、体积更大且成本更高。为支撑储氢系统相关研发工作，我们征集了31位专家对储氢系统未来预期成本与性能容量的评估意见。专家指出，在大规模量产场景下，储氢系统的容量将接近U.S. DRIVE设定的最终容量目标，但无法达成其成本目标。专家预测的2035年与2050年的成本中位数分别为13.5美元/千瓦时氢（kWhH₂）与10.53美元/千瓦时氢；重量储氢容量（gravimetric capacity）分别为5.2%质量分数（weight percent, wt%）与5.6%质量分数，体积储氢容量（volumetric capacity）分别为0.93与1.33千瓦时氢/升（kWhH₂/L）。为达成U.S. DRIVE设定的目标，专家建议将政府储氢研发（Research and Development, R&D）资金的大部分投向材料开发领域。此外，我们将专家给出的成本评估数据纳入了单位行驶成本平准化模型。考虑到技术与燃料价格的不确定性，2020年燃料电池电动汽车的使用成本区间为0.38~0.45美元/英里（0.24~0.28美元/公里），2035-2050年区间为0.30~0.33美元/英里（0.19~0.21美元/公里），2050年区间为0.27~0.31美元/英里（0.17~0.19美元/公里）。综合燃料、电力与电池价格的差异，我们的研究结果显示，到2035年，燃料电池电动汽车有望与传统燃油车辆及替代燃料车辆形成市场竞争态势。