Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Matter? Disentangling the Portfolio and Expectations Effects for the Mark

The time is ripe for a re-examination of the question whether foreign exchange intervention can affect the exchange rate. We attempt to isolate two distinct effects: the portfolio effect, whereby an increase in the supply of marks must reduce the dollar/mark rate (for given expected rates of return)

重新审视“外汇干预能否影响汇率”这一问题的时机已然成熟。我们尝试分离出两种截然不同的效应：其一为资产组合效应（Portfolio Effect），即在既定预期收益率水平下，德国马克供给量的增加必然会压低美元兑马克汇率。