Replication data for: Productivity Growth and Capital Flows: The Dynamics of Reforms

Why doesn't capital flow into fast-growing countries? Using a model with heterogeneous producers and underdeveloped domestic financial markets, we explain the joint dynamics of total factor productivity (TFP) and capital flows. When a large-scale economic reform removes preexisting idiosyncratic distortions in a small open economy, its TFP rises, driven by efficient reallocation of economic resources. At the same time, because of the domestic financial frictions, saving rates surge but investment rates respond only with a lag, resulting in capital outflows. The dynamics of TFP, capital flows, and idiosyncratic distortions in the model are consistent with what is observed during growth acceleration episodes, which often follow large-scale economic reforms.

为何资本未流向增长快速的经济体？本文借助包含异质性厂商与欠发达国内金融市场的模型，阐释了全要素生产率（TFP）与资本流动的联合动态演化机制。当大型经济改革消除小型开放经济中既存的异质性扭曲时，得益于经济资源的高效再配置，该经济体的全要素生产率将实现提升。与此同时，受国内金融摩擦影响，储蓄率大幅攀升，但投资率仅会滞后做出响应，最终引发资本外流。模型中全要素生产率、资本流动与异质性扭曲的动态变化特征，与大型经济改革后通常出现的增长加速阶段所观测到的现象相一致。