Randomly Selected Politicians: Transforming Democracy in the Post Conflict Setting, 2014-2016

The aim of this project was to come up with a good, well worked out, suggestion as to how best to include a randomly-selected decision making body into the existing Northern Ireland political system. Firstly, international academic experts were brought together to generate a range of possible ways of doing so. Secondly, Northern Ireland citizens were asked what they thought of the suggestions. Thirdly, half of all elected politicians in Northern Ireland were interviewed and their main objections to a possible role for randomly selected citizens were identified. Bearing in mind this evidence from public opinion and the opinions of politicians, suggestions were finalised as to how best to amend existing institutions to build in a role for randomly chosen citizen decision makers. Finally, a small real-world trial was set up to illustrate citizen decision making in action.<br /><br /> The study contains three datasets: <ul> <li>Public attitudes to a citizens' assembly: this is a survey dataset in which the respondents were a representative sample (n=1000; in-home interviews; computer assisted personal interviewing) of the Northern Ireland population. The respondents were asked a set of questions about the idea of using a Citizens Assembly (made up of randomly selected citizens who deliberate and come to a decision on a given issue) to make decisions on sensitive issues in Northern Ireland that parties find difficult to resolve. The survey was conducted by Ipsos-Mori and was part of an Omnibus survey. Quota sampling was used to ensure that respondents are representative of the broad population in terms of age, gender, social class and geographical location. </li> <li>Political elite attitudes to a citizens' assembly: this is a survey dataset in which the respondents were elected politicians in Northern Ireland, specifically Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs). A representative sample of 42 of the total of 108 MLAs was achieved. A random stratification approach was used, stratified by location (Belfast, East of Bann, West of Bann) and party (DUP, UUP, SDLP, Sinn Fein, Alliance, Other). A sample of 60 MLA was initially thus randomly selected and approached to participate. If an MLA refused another from the same party (and location) was randomly chosen as a replacement. Interviews were conducted face to face by Ipsos-Mori at MLA offices, as part of the annual Ipsos-Mori MLA survey Omnibus. </li> <li>Deliberating citizens: This is a dataset generated from a survey of citizens (representative quota-based sample of n=1000; in-home interviews; computer assisted personal interviewing). It was conducted by Ipsos-Mori and was a stand-alone, bespoke, survey. Quota sampling was used to ensure that respondents are representative of the broad population in terms of age, gender, social class and geographical location. The aim of the survey was to conduct a deliberative polling exercise in which the respondents would be asked to deliberate on a sensitive political issue. Specifically, this was the issue of flag display. The deliberation respondents were asked to engage in was 'internal' deliberation: they were asked to observe specially generated short videos showing the background to the flag issue, showing the different perspectives on the flag issue, and also they were asked to imagine that they were having a debate with someone from the 'other community' on the issue. An experimental approach was used in the survey in order to identify whether the citizens engaging in the deliberation generated viewpoints on the flag issue that were different from citizens in a 'control group' who were not asked to engage in deliberation. <br /><br />More information may be found on the Gateway to Research <a href="http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk/projects?ref=ES/M000257/1" title="Randomly Selected "Politicians": Transforming Democracy in the Post-Conflict Context">Randomly Selected "Politicians": Transforming Democracy in the Post-Conflict Context</a> webpage.<br /><br />

本项目旨在为在北爱尔兰现有政治体系中最优纳入随机遴选决策机构提供严谨完善的可行方案。首先，我们召集国际学术专家，梳理出一系列可行的实施路径；其次，向北爱尔兰民众征询对这些方案的看法；第三，访谈北爱尔兰半数当选政客，明确他们对随机遴选公民参与决策的主要反对意见。结合公众舆论与政客观点的相关证据，最终敲定关于如何修订现有制度、引入随机遴选公民决策者的具体方案。最后，开展小型现实试点，展示公民决策的实践运作。<br/><br/>本研究包含三类数据集：<ul> <li>公众对公民大会（Citizens Assembly）的态度：该数据集为调研数据集，受访者为北爱尔兰人口的代表性样本（n=1000；家庭面访；计算机辅助个人访谈）。受访者需回答一系列相关问题，议题为设立公民大会——由随机遴选的公民组成，针对特定议题开展审议并作出决策，用以解决北爱尔兰各政党难以化解的敏感议题。本次调研由益普索莫里（Ipsos-Mori）开展，属于综合问卷调研（Omnibus survey）的一部分。调研采用配额抽样（Quota sampling），确保受访者在年龄、性别、社会阶层与地理位置上能够代表整体人口结构。</li> <li>政治精英对公民大会的态度：该数据集的受访者为北爱尔兰当选政客，具体为北爱尔兰立法会议员（Members of the Legislative Assembly, MLAs）。研究从总计108名议员中抽取42名作为代表性样本，采用随机分层抽样方法，按地域（贝尔法斯特、班恩河东岸、班恩河西岸）与党派（民主统一党DUP、阿尔斯特统一党UUP、社会民主工党SDLP、新芬党Sinn Fein、联盟党Alliance、其他党派）进行分层。最初随机遴选并邀约60名议员参与调研，若某议员拒绝，则从其所属党派及地域的议员中随机抽取替补。访谈由益普索莫里（Ipsos-Mori）以面对面形式在议员办公室开展，属于年度益普索莫里议员调研综合问卷的一部分。</li> <li>参与审议的公民：该数据集源自针对公民的调研，样本为基于配额抽样的代表性样本（n=1000；家庭面访；计算机辅助个人访谈），由益普索莫里（Ipsos-Mori）独立定制开展。调研采用配额抽样，确保受访者在年龄、性别、社会阶层与地理位置上能够代表整体人口结构。本次调研旨在开展协商民意测验（Deliberative polling），要求受访者针对敏感政治议题进行审议。具体议题为旗帜展示问题。受访者所参与的审议为“内部式”审议：需观看专门制作的短视频，了解旗帜议题的背景与各方观点，并想象与“对立社群”成员就该议题展开辩论。调研采用实验设计，以识别参与审议的公民与未参与审议的对照组（Control group）公民在旗帜议题上的观点是否存在差异。</li> </ul> <br/><br/>更多信息可参阅研究门户（Gateway to Research）上的<a href="http://gtr.rcuk.ac.uk/projects?ref=ES/M000257/1" title="随机遴选“政客”：后冲突语境下的民主转型">《随机遴选“政客”：后冲突语境下的民主转型》</a>网页。<br/><br/>