The results of spatial effect test.

The exploration of the agricultural carbon emission reduction effect of digital rural construction offers a promising path towards achieving dual carbon goals. This study establishes an evaluation system for digital rural construction and analyzes its impact on agricultural carbon emissions using various creative techniques including panel fixed effects, mediation effects, threshold effects, and spatial Durbin models based on provincial panel data from 2011 to 2021.It is found that: (1) The impact of digital rural construction on agricultural carbon emissions exhibits a "inverted U-shaped" pattern, with a nonlinear effect on emissions through promoting agricultural green total factor productivity and adjusting agricultural structure.(2) Digital rural construction has both promoting and inhibiting effects on agricultural carbon emissions, both locally and in adjacent areas. It also demonstrates a threshold effect, with rural human capital as the sole threshold. Once the threshold value 8.830 is surpassed, the agricultural carbon emission reduction effect becomes prominent.(3)Digital rural construction has a dual effect on local agricultural carbon emissions in terms of both promoting and then restraining the emissions, which has a spatial spill-over effect in the neighboring areas. This study contributes to our understanding of carbon reduction pathways by highlighting the comprehensive utilization of digital rural construction and expanding research on the dynamic context of its impact on carbon emissions.探究数字乡村建设的农业碳减排效应，可为实现双碳目标提供颇具前景的路径。本研究构建了数字乡村建设评价体系，并基于2011至2021年的省级面板数据，采用面板固定效应、中介效应、门槛效应以及空间杜宾（Spatial Durbin）模型等多种创新性计量方法，剖析其对农业碳排放的影响。研究发现：（1）数字乡村建设对农业碳排放的影响呈现"倒U型"特征，其通过提升农业绿色全要素生产率、优化农业产业结构对碳排放产生非线性影响。（2）数字乡村建设对本地及邻近地区的农业碳排放兼具促进与抑制作用；其存在以农村人力资本为唯一门槛变量的门槛效应，当跨越8.830这一门槛值后，其农业碳减排效应将显著显现。（3）数字乡村建设对本地农业碳排放呈现先促进后抑制的双重效应，且对邻近地区具有空间溢出效应。本研究通过强调数字乡村建设的综合应用，拓展了其对碳排放影响的动态情境研究，有助于深化对碳减排路径的认知。