Spatial Association and Trade-off/Synergy Relationships between Ecosystem Health and Human Well-being: A Case Study of the Manas River Basin

Identifying the linkage between ecosystem health (EH) and human well-being (HWB) is crucial for understanding natural–social system interactions. However, research on the spatial associations and conflict/cobenefit relationships between EH and HWB remains limited. Using the Manas River Basin as a case study, we quantitatively assessed EH and HWB from 2000 to 2020. By integrating Lee’s L statistic and Spearman’s rank correlation, we revealed their spatial correlation and trade-off/synergy mechanisms between EH and HWB. Results show that (1) EH exhibited a slight increase (0.14 → 0.166), with a “high–medium–high–low” spatial pattern from south to north. High values were concentrated in upstream forests and midstream agricultural oases, while low values occurred in piedmont grasslands and downstream deserts, closely linked to oasis agricultural development. (2) HWB increased significantly (0.106→0.738), shifting from economic well-being (EcoWB) and educational/cultural well-being (ECWB) dominance to diversified development encompassing health and safety well-being (HSWB), environmental well-being (EnvWB), and EcoWB. Its spatial evolution followed an urbanization-driven “agglomeration → diffusion → rebalancing” pattern centered on oasis towns. (3) EH and HWB showed significant spatial dependence, but their correlation weakened over time, indicating spatial decoupling of human activities from natural systems. High EH–high HWB clusters were predominantly in midstream oases, whereas high EH–low HWB clusters were located in southern forests. (4) Trade-offs and synergies varied along the landscape gradient: ecological stress traded off with all HWB types, while ecological function showed stable synergies with EnvWB and increasing synergies with EcoWB and ECWB. These findings provide insights into EH–HWB coevolution and support sustainable development in arid-region basins.

明确生态系统健康（ecosystem health, EH）与人类福祉（human well-being, HWB）之间的关联，是理解自然-社会系统交互作用的关键所在。然而，当前针对生态系统健康与人类福祉的空间关联及冲突/协同效益关系的研究仍较为匮乏。本研究以玛纳斯河流域（Manas River Basin）为案例区，对2000年至2020年的生态系统健康与人类福祉水平进行了定量评估。通过整合Lee的L统计量（Lee’s L statistic）与斯皮尔曼秩相关分析（Spearman’s rank correlation），揭示了二者的空间相关性及生态系统健康与人类福祉间的权衡/协同机制。

研究结果显示：（1）生态系统健康水平呈小幅上升趋势（从0.14提升至0.166），空间上呈现“高-中-高-低”的南北分异格局；高值区集中于上游森林与中游农业绿洲，低值区则分布于山前草原与下游荒漠，其空间分布与绿洲农业开发密切相关。（2）人类福祉水平增幅显著（从0.106提升至0.738），发展模式从以经济福祉（economic well-being, EcoWB）和教育文化福祉（educational/cultural well-being, ECWB）为主导，转向涵盖健康安全福祉（health and safety well-being, HSWB）、环境福祉（environmental well-being, EnvWB）与经济福祉的多元化发展；其空间演化呈现以绿洲城镇为核心、受城市化驱动的“集聚-扩散-再平衡”格局。（3）生态系统健康与人类福祉存在显著的空间依赖性，但二者的相关性随时间推移逐渐减弱，表明人类活动与自然系统出现空间脱耦（spatial decoupling）；高生态系统健康-高人类福祉集聚区主要分布于中游绿洲，而高生态系统健康-低人类福祉集聚区则位于南部林区。（4）景观梯度上的权衡与协同关系存在异质性：生态压力与各类人类福祉均呈权衡关系，而生态功能与环境福祉呈稳定协同关系，与经济福祉及教育文化福祉的协同性则不断增强。本研究结果可为生态系统健康与人类福祉的协同演化研究提供理论参考，并助力干旱区流域的可持续发展。