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This study establishes a risk index system to evaluate the financial risks of foreign agricultural investment in Belt and Road countries. Agricultural foreign investment risk prevention has emerged as a crucial concern across various sectors globally. We assess the four key dimensions such as political and military risk, economic market risk, social and cultural risk, and resource and environmental risk. We employ the Vertical and Horizontal Leveling Method and Entropy Weighting Method (VHSD-EM) for measuring and analyzing foreign agricultural investment risk levels in Belt and Road countries from 2014 to 2021. Moreover, we used spatial correlation analysis, the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic, to identify hot and cold spots of agricultural foreign investment risks. First political & military, and environmental risks are the main influencing factors of agricultural foreign investment risk. The average AFDI level exceeded in Southeast and South Asia, and certain spillover effects were found in Southeast Asia. Second, the Belt and Road" initiative effectively reduces the risk of AFDI and helps to weaken the spillover effect among fellow countries. A significant spillover effect in AFDI from neighboring countries can lead to high-risk areas for sustained AFDI formation. Third to address such challenges, the Chinese government has prerequisites to enhance foreign agricultural investments in Belt and Road countries and establish a measurement index for agricultural investment risks. Government needs to establish a public service system to enhance the development of large-scale multinational agricultural enterprises. Foreign cooperation is essential for multi and bilateral investment negotiation and optimizing the financial tools to mitigate agricultural foreign direct investment risk in Belt and Road countries.

本研究构建了一套风险指标体系，用于评估"一带一路"沿线国家农业境外投资的金融风险。农业境外投资风险防控已成为全球各行业普遍关注的核心议题。本研究从政治军事风险、经济市场风险、社会文化风险以及资源环境风险四大核心维度开展评估，并采用层次-水平法与熵权法（Vertical and Horizontal Leveling Method and Entropy Weighting Method，VHSD-EM）对2014-2021年"一带一路"沿线国家的农业境外投资风险水平进行测算与分析。此外，本研究借助空间相关性分析方法与Getis-Ord Gi*统计量，识别农业境外投资风险的热点与冷点区域。其一，政治军事风险与资源环境风险是影响农业境外投资风险的核心因素；农业境外直接投资（Agricultural Foreign Direct Investment，AFDI）的平均风险水平在东南亚与南亚地区偏高，且东南亚地区呈现出一定的风险溢出效应。其二，"一带一路"倡议可有效降低AFDI风险，并有助于弱化沿线国家间的风险溢出效应；周边国家AFDI的显著溢出效应，会推动高风险区域形成持续性的农业境外直接投资格局。其三，为应对上述挑战，中国政府需具备相应前提条件，以深化对"一带一路"沿线国家的农业境外投资，并构建农业投资风险测算指标体系；政府应建立公共服务体系，推动大型跨国农业企业的发展壮大。开展多边与双边投资磋商、优化金融工具以缓解"一带一路"沿线国家农业境外直接投资风险，都离不开国际合作。