The postsocialist transformation in Central and Eastern Europe

ABSTRACT What is attempted in the East is catching up with the West from a recent position of worse-than-Latin-American economic backwardness. Until now, populations that were sentenced to political patience by the logic of poor democracies have reluctantly backed this enormous effort. Central and Eastern Europe’s post-socialist path is characterized by an increasingly discredited ideology of a return to Europe and a non- European combination of substitute institutions of development: radical opening towards the world economy, damaged institutions of labor representation, eroded state capacity, and often strong private and foreign dominance in the financial and other strategic sectors. There is a chance for a few countries to succeed. Yet various development traps may be more likely in the end than a “Great Spurt” in the Gerschenkronian sense.

摘要：东欧地区所尝试的，是从较拉美国家更为恶劣的经济落后处境起步，追赶西方发达经济体。迄今为止，受限于孱弱民主的运行逻辑而被迫保持政治耐心的民众，始终勉强支持着这项宏大的转型工程。中东欧的后社会主义转型路径，呈现出两大核心特征：一是日益失去公信力的“回归欧洲”意识形态，二是非欧洲式的替代型发展制度组合——具体表现为激进向世界经济开放、受损的劳工代表制度、被削弱的国家能力，以及金融与其他战略部门中时常存在的强大私人资本与外资主导格局。仍有少数国家具备实现成功转型的可能性。然而最终，相较于格申克龙（Gerschenkron）语境下的“大突进”，各类发展陷阱更有可能成为该地区的最终走向。