Table 2_Global trends of cardiovascular disease burden attributable to high body mass index from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2035.xlsx

BackgroundCardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of mortality and disability globally, with high body mass index (HBMI) playing a pivotal role in its worldwide burden. Gaining a clear understanding and forecasting the effect of HBMI on CVD is crucial for developing effective health policies and interventions.
MethodsWe used data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease study to analyze the CVD burden attributable to HBMI. An age–period–cohort (APC) analysis was conducted to investigate trends in CVD-related mortality attributable to HBMI, whereas the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model projected the number of deaths and mortality up to 2035.
ResultsThe study revealed a significant increase in CVD deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to HBMI globally, despite slightly decreased age-standardized rates (ASR) for HBMI-related CVD. The ASR of deaths and DALYs decreased from 1990 to 2021 in the high and high-middle Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions while increasing in the lower SDI regions. A pinpoint analysis revealed the most significant decline in HBMI-related CVD mortality from 2003 to 2010. The BAPC model projected an increase in global HBMI-related CVD deaths to 2,369,451 by 2035. The ASR of deaths is projected to increase to 37.53 per 100,000, with an increase for females and a decrease for males.
ConclusionThis study emphasizes global trends in HBMI-related CVD burden and the importance of targeting HBMI as a modifiable risk factor. It provides crucial information for public health strategies aimed at reducing CVD mortality. Further research is warranted, especially with an aging global population.

背景：心血管疾病（CVD）仍是全球范围内致死与致残的首要病因，高体质量指数（HBMI）在其全球疾病负担中扮演关键角色。明确并预判高体质量指数对心血管疾病的影响，对于制定有效的卫生政策与干预措施至关重要。
方法：本研究采用2021年全球疾病负担研究的数据，分析由高体质量指数导致的心血管疾病负担。通过年龄-时期-队列（APC）分析，探究高体质量指数相关心血管疾病死亡的变化趋势；同时运用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型，对截至2035年的死亡人数与死亡率进行预测。
结果：尽管高体质量指数相关心血管疾病的年龄标化率（ASR）略有下降，但全球范围内由高体质量指数导致的心血管疾病死亡病例与伤残调整寿命年（DALYs）均出现显著上升。1990年至2021年间，高社会人口指数（SDI）及中高社会人口指数地区的高体质量指数相关心血管疾病死亡与伤残调整寿命年的年龄标化率呈下降趋势，而低社会人口指数地区则呈上升趋势。细化分析显示，2003年至2010年期间，高体质量指数相关心血管疾病死亡率下降幅度最为显著。贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测，到2035年，全球高体质量指数相关心血管疾病死亡人数将增至2369451例；死亡年龄标化率预计将升至每10万人37.53例，其中女性死亡率呈上升趋势，男性则呈下降趋势。
结论：本研究阐明了高体质量指数相关心血管疾病负担的全球变化趋势，强调将高体质量指数作为可干预危险因素的重要性。研究为旨在降低心血管疾病死亡率的公共卫生策略提供了关键依据。鉴于全球人口老龄化趋势，未来仍需开展进一步研究。