Replication data for: Does Survey Participation Increase Voter Turnout? Re-examining the Hawthorne Effect in the Swedish National Election Studies

A Hawthorne effect found in election studies is that pre-election survey participation increases voter turnout. Using the Swedish National Election Studies, Granberg and Holmberg (1992) showed evidence in support of this effect. However, their findings have been criticized and more recent studies have failed to find any treatment effect of pre-election survey participation (cf. Mann 2005). I re-examine an updated version of Granberg and Holmberg’s time series cumulative data file covering eight additional election studies (in total 14 election studies from 1960 to 2010). These studies have an experimental component since half of the sample is randomly assigned to be interviewed before the election and the other half to be interviewed after the election. By comparing validated turnout in the pre-election sample with the post-election sample it is possible to estimate the causal effect of survey participation on voter turnout. The results show that participating in the pre-election survey indeed has a significant and positive effect on voter turnout. Moreover, this paper evaluates whether the treatment effect is unevenly distributed in the population. Results show that citizens with a low propensity to vote are more affected by taking part in election studies than citizens with a high propensity to vote. In addition, the study estimates the long-term effects of survey participation. Results show that participating in an election survey can have significant effects on voter turnout several years later.

选举研究中发现的霍桑效应（Hawthorne effect）指，选举前参与调查会提升选民投票率。格兰伯格与霍尔姆贝里（1992）利用瑞典全国选举研究（Swedish National Election Studies）数据集，为该效应提供了实证支撑。然而，他们的研究结论遭到了学界的批评与质疑，后续多项新近研究均未发现选举前参与调查存在处理效应（参见曼恩2005）。本文重新分析了格兰伯格与霍尔姆贝里的时序累积数据集更新版，该数据集新增了8项选举研究，整体涵盖1960年至2010年的共14项选举研究。该数据集包含实验设计环节：将半数样本随机分配至选举前访谈组，剩余半数分配至选举后访谈组。通过对比选举前样本与选举后样本的验证投票率，可估计参与调查对选民投票率的因果效应。研究结果显示，参与选举前调查确实会对选民投票率产生显著正向影响。此外，本文还考察了处理效应在人群中的异质性分布，结果表明投票倾向较低的选民相较于投票倾向较高的选民，参与选举调查所受的影响更为显著。除此之外，本研究还估算了参与调查的长期效应，结果显示参与选举调查可在数年后仍对选民投票率产生显著影响。