The UK-Ireland Border and the Stability of Peace and Security in Northern Ireland, 2017-2019

There are two sets of data exploring people's attitudes in Northern Ireland towards different types of Brexit and their possible consequences on political stability and peace.
The survey data is a representative sample of 1,012 people from across Northern Ireland were interviewed by Ipsos-MORI in face-to-face computer-assisted interviews between 9 February and 12 March 2018. A two-stage sampling design was used, with random selection of geographic sampling points and quotas set for each sampling point based on the latest socio-demographic census estimates to ensure that the respondents were statistically representative of the Northern Ireland population regarding traits such as age, gender, religion of origin, geographical location, and social class.
The deliberative forum data studies 48 people from across Northern Ireland took part in a deliberative forum in which they received expert presentations and discussed the possible impact on Northern Ireland of the UK’s exit from the EU. This deliberative forum took place on 10 February 2018 at the Clayton Hotel in Belfast. Ipsos MORI recruited the 48 participants to be broadly representative of the Northern Ireland population in their socio-demographic backgrounds and geographic residences. Importantly, the sample was broadly balanced between those who had voted Leave and those who had voted Remain in the 2016 referendum. The participants’ roundtable discussions in the morning and afternoon were recorded and transcribed. Participants also completed questionnaires, from which survey data are provided.

A follow up survey experiment was conducted in 2019 to test the effect of imagined dialogue on inter-group attitudes. In the first wave (March-April 2019), the experimental treatment involved participants engaging in an imagined conversation about a controversial political issue with someone holding the opposite view; participants randomly assigned to the control condition were asked to imagine having a conversation about a benign non-political issue with someone holding an opposite political viewpoint. The survey experiment was conducted using representative samples in three political contexts: Northern Ireland (unionists/nationalists; N = 1,263), Great Britain (Remainers/Leavers; N = 1,879), and the USA (pro-life/pro-choice; N = 1,217). A second wave of the experiment (June-July 2019) used the same design but addressed partisan divisions rather than divisions over political issues in Northern Ireland (SF/DUP supporters; N = 806), Great Britain (Conservative/Labour supporters; N = 839) and the USA (Democrats/Republicans; N = 836).<p>Peace and stability in any society is dependent upon citizen acceptance of the legitimacy of political and legal arrangements, and particularly so in Northern Ireland where peaceful politics is a recent outcome of a long and difficult 'peace process'. Knowing the likely level and intensity of perceived illegitimacy (non-acceptability) of different possible border arrangements after the UK leaves the EU would provide policy makers with crucial evidence when evaluating the relative merits of different border options, particularly with respect to the criteria of political sustainability and likely impact on peace and stability in Northern Ireland.
With Northern Ireland's politicians engaged in political campaigning in an Assembly election and likely impending inter-party talks to re-establish a power sharing executive, it is arguably particularly important that there is a systematic reporting of the considered views of citizens on this crucial issue of the UK's exit from the EU.
We conduct two "deliberative democracy" exercises which allow Northern Ireland citizens the space and relevant information to consider the challenging issue of Brexit and the border. Once they have become informed about the issues and reflected upon them, we ask the citizens to put forward their own views.
We are focused on answering the following questions. How difficult would it be for Catholics/nationalists to accept a policed North/South border and what level of protest would they condone? How difficult would it be for Protestants/unionists to accept a policed East/West border and what level of protest would they condone?
We seek to provide policy makers with evidence-based answers to the these questions. This evidence will prove to be especially useful when policy makers are considering the likely implications of the post-Brexit border for peace and stability in Northern Ireland.
We generate a report which summarises our key findings and presents our key evidence. We also produce a short animated film which gets across to the viewer in a dramatic, simple and exciting way our key findings.
We engage enthusiastically in submissions to the key committees, bodies and specific politicians who have responsibility for negotiating the UK exit from the EU. We contribute to their work by highlighting the likely implications, for peace and stability in Northern Ireland, of pursuing certain post-exit border scenarios.</p>

本数据集包含两组调研数据，旨在探究北爱尔兰民众对各类英国脱欧方案的态度，以及该方案可能对当地政治稳定与和平局势产生的潜在影响。
本次调研的样本为1012名北爱尔兰民众，由益普索·莫里（Ipsos-MORI）于2018年2月9日至3月12日间通过面对面计算机辅助访谈完成数据收集。该调研采用两阶段抽样设计：随机选取地理抽样点，并依据最新社会人口统计普查估算值为每个抽样点设定配额，确保受访者在年龄、性别、出身宗教、地理位置、社会阶层等特征上，能够在统计层面代表北爱尔兰全体民众。
另一组数据来自协商论坛调研：48名北爱尔兰民众参与了2018年2月10日在贝尔法斯特克莱顿酒店（Clayton Hotel）举办的协商论坛。与会者听取了专家报告，并就英国脱欧对北爱尔兰的潜在影响展开讨论。益普索·莫里招募的这48名参与者，在社会人口背景与居住地域上大致能够代表北爱尔兰民众；尤为重要的是，样本在2016年公投中支持脱欧与支持留欧的人群间大致保持平衡。参与者上午与下午的圆桌讨论均被录制并转录，同时参与者还填写了问卷，相关调研数据亦已同步提供。
2019年，研究团队开展了一项追踪调查实验，以检验想象式对话对群体间态度的影响。第一波实验（2019年3-4月）的实验处理组要求参与者想象与持有相反政治立场的人，就某一争议性政治议题展开对话；随机分配至对照组的参与者则被要求想象与持有相反政治立场的人，就一项温和的非政治议题展开对话。该调查实验采用了三个政治语境下的代表性样本：北爱尔兰（联合主义者/民族主义者，样本量N=1263）、英国本土（脱欧派/留欧派，样本量N=1879）以及美国（反堕胎/支持堕胎权者，样本量N=1217）。第二波实验（2019年6-7月）采用了相同的实验设计，但聚焦于党派分歧而非北爱尔兰的政治议题分歧（新芬党（SF）/民主统一党（DUP）支持者，样本量N=806）、英国本土（保守党/工党支持者，样本量N=839）以及美国（民主党/共和党支持者，样本量N=836）。
任何社会的和平与稳定，都依赖于公民对政治与法律制度合法性的认可，对于北爱尔兰而言尤其如此——当地的和平政治格局是历经长期艰难的“和平进程”后才达成的新近成果。明晰英国脱欧后各类边境安排的感知合法性（即民众接受度）水平与强度，可为政策制定者评估不同边境方案的相对优劣提供关键证据，尤其是在政治可持续性以及对北爱尔兰和平与稳定的潜在影响这两项核心标准上。
彼时北爱尔兰的政客正忙于议会选举的竞选活动，且即将开展跨党派谈判以重建权力分享执行机构，可以说，系统呈现民众对英国脱欧这一关键议题的深思熟虑的观点，显得尤为必要。研究团队开展了两项“协商民主（deliberative democracy）”实践，为北爱尔兰民众提供思考空间与相关信息，以探讨脱欧与边境这一棘手议题。在充分了解议题并经过反思后，研究团队邀请民众阐述自身观点。
本次研究聚焦于回答以下核心问题：天主教徒/民族主义者接受设有警务管控的南北边境的难度如何？他们会容忍何种程度的抗议？新教徒/联合主义者接受设有警务管控的东西边境的难度如何？他们会容忍何种程度的抗议？
研究团队旨在为政策制定者提供基于实证的上述问题的答案。这些证据在政策制定者考量脱欧后边境安排对北爱尔兰和平与稳定的潜在影响时，将尤为实用。
研究团队撰写了一份报告，总结核心研究发现并呈现关键证据。同时，团队还制作了一部简短的动画短片，以生动、简洁且引人入胜的方式向观众传递核心研究成果。
团队积极向负责英国脱欧谈判的关键委员会、机构与特定政客提交相关材料，通过阐明特定脱欧后边境方案对北爱尔兰和平与稳定的潜在影响，为其工作提供助力。