Impacts of climate change on tsetse (Diptera: Glossinidae): water balance physiology and mechanistic modelling

Climate change will alter both temperature and moisture availability in the future and therefore will
likely affect vector borne disease prevalence. Organisms faced with changes in weather can respond
in a variety of ways and this complicates any predictions and inferences for these organisms with
climate change. Cause-and-effect links between climate change, insect vector responses, and
changes in risk of disease transmission are poorly established for most vector borne diseases. Tsetse
(Diptera, Glossinidae) are important vectors of trypanosome parasites posing a major threat to
human health and socio-economic welfare in Africa. Water balance plays an important role in
determining activity patterns, energy budgets, survival and population dynamics and, hence,
geographic distribution and abundance of insects. Glossina species occupy a wide range of habitats
in Africa and are notable for their desiccation resistance in xeric environments. Yet, whether or not
the different species, subgroups or ecotype groups differ in susceptibility to changes in weather
remain undetermined.

未来气候变化将同时改变气温与可利用水分状况，进而大概率影响虫媒传染病（vector-borne disease）的流行程度。面对气象条件变化，生物可通过多种路径产生响应，这为气候变化背景下针对此类生物的预测与推演增添了复杂性。目前，针对多数虫媒传染病，气候变化、昆虫媒介响应与疾病传播风险变化之间的因果关联尚未得到充分证实。采采蝇（Tsetse，双翅目：舌蝇科）是锥虫寄生虫的重要传播媒介，对非洲地区的人类健康与社会经济福祉构成重大威胁。水分平衡对于昆虫的活动模式、能量收支、存活能力与种群动态，乃至其地理分布与种群丰度均具有关键调控作用。舌蝇属（Glossina）物种在非洲拥有广泛的栖息生境，并以在干旱环境中的耐旱能力闻名。然而，不同舌蝇物种、类群或生态型群体对气象变化的敏感性是否存在差异，目前仍无定论。