<p>Estimation results of threshold model parameters.</p>

Based on survey data from 536 pastoral households in Inner Mongolia, this study employs the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) method to estimate the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) of herders’ participation in grassland ecological compensation policies on their grass and animal husbandry production efficiency during the first and second policy rounds. Furthermore, we utilize herders’ perceptions as a threshold variable to investigate the nonlinear effects of policy participation on production efficiency. The results indicate that: (1) Policy participation significantly suppressed production efficiency during the first policy period, while its effect in the second period was statistically insignificant. (2) Threshold regression models reveal a nonlinear, U-shaped relationship between policy participation and production efficiency, dependent on herders’ overall, economic, and loss perceptions. Specifically, significant double-threshold effects were identified for these three perception types. While overall and loss perceptions remain in the significant inhibitory phase at the lower threshold range, economic perception has already surpassed its lower threshold, enabling policy participation to effectively promote production efficiency. In contrast, only single-threshold effects were found for ecological and emotional perceptions, with policy participation showing no significant positive effect even at higher perception levels.

本研究基于内蒙古536户牧户的调研数据，采用倾向得分匹配法（Propensity Score Matching, PSM），估算了牧户参与草原生态补偿政策在政策首轮与次轮周期内，对其草地与畜牧业生产效率的处理组平均处理效应（Average Treatment Effect on the Treated, ATT）。进一步地，本研究以牧户的感知认知作为门槛变量，探究政策参与对生产效率的非线性影响效应。研究结果显示：(1) 政策参与在首轮政策周期内显著抑制了生产效率，而在次轮周期中的影响未达到统计学显著性水平。(2) 门槛回归模型揭示，政策参与与生产效率之间存在基于牧户总体感知、经济感知与损失感知的非线性U型关系。具体而言，上述三类感知变量均呈现显著的双门槛效应：当总体感知与损失感知处于较低门槛区间时，仍处于显著的抑制阶段；而经济感知则已跨越其较低门槛，此时政策参与可有效提升生产效率。与之相对，生态感知与情感感知仅存在单一门槛效应，即便在较高感知水平下，政策参与也未展现出显著的正向促进作用。