Estimation results of threshold model parameters.

Based on survey data from 536 pastoral households in Inner Mongolia, this study employs the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) method to estimate the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) of herders’ participation in grassland ecological compensation policies on their grass and animal husbandry production efficiency during the first and second policy rounds. Furthermore, we utilize herders’ perceptions as a threshold variable to investigate the nonlinear effects of policy participation on production efficiency. The results indicate that: (1) Policy participation significantly suppressed production efficiency during the first policy period, while its effect in the second period was statistically insignificant. (2) Threshold regression models reveal a nonlinear, U-shaped relationship between policy participation and production efficiency, dependent on herders’ overall, economic, and loss perceptions. Specifically, significant double-threshold effects were identified for these three perception types. While overall and loss perceptions remain in the significant inhibitory phase at the lower threshold range, economic perception has already surpassed its lower threshold, enabling policy participation to effectively promote production efficiency. In contrast, only single-threshold effects were found for ecological and emotional perceptions, with policy participation showing no significant positive effect even at higher perception levels.

本研究基于内蒙古地区536户牧户的调研数据，采用倾向得分匹配（Propensity Score Matching，PSM）方法，估算了牧户参与草原生态补偿政策在首轮与第二轮政策周期内，对其草地与畜牧生产效率的平均处理效应（Average Treatment Effect on the Treated，ATT）。此外，本研究以牧户的政策感知作为门槛变量，探究政策参与对生产效率的非线性影响。研究结果表明：（1）政策参与在首轮政策周期内显著抑制了生产效率，而在第二轮政策周期中的影响在统计上并不显著。（2）门槛回归模型揭示，政策参与与生产效率之间存在非线性的U型关系，且该关系取决于牧户的整体感知、经济感知与损失感知。具体而言，这三类感知均存在显著的双重门槛效应：当整体感知与损失感知处于较低门槛区间时，政策参与仍处于显著抑制阶段；而经济感知则已跨越其较低门槛，此时政策参与可有效提升生产效率。与之相对，生态感知与情感感知仅存在单一门槛效应，即便在较高感知水平下，政策参与也未展现出显著的正向促进作用。