Data and Code for: Severe Weather and the Macroeconomy

We investigate the impact of severe weather shocks on the US macroeconomy over the past sixty years. Using a nonlinear vector autoregressive model, we find robust evidence of time-varying effects. While negligible at the beginning of the sample, the impact becomes significant at the end, where an increase in the severe weather index reduces aggregate industrial production and consumption growth rates, and raises aggregate unemployment and inflation rates. The effects are persistent for up to twenty months. Our findings suggest limited adaptation to the increased severity of weather in the United States, at least at the macroeconomic level.本研究探讨了过去六十年来极端天气冲击对美国宏观经济的影响。通过运用非线性向量自回归模型（nonlinear vector autoregressive model），研究得到了时变效应的稳健实证证据：该效应在样本期初近乎可忽略，但在样本期末变得显著——极端天气指数的提升会抑制总工业产出与消费增长率，同时推高总失业率与通货膨胀率，且此类效应的持续时长可达二十个月。研究结果表明，美国至少在宏观经济层面，对天气极端性加剧的适应性仍较为有限。