Figure 4. Scarcity-to-Consumer-Price Transmission Chain

This dataset contains Figure 4, “Scarcity-to-Consumer-Price Transmission Chain,” from Nicolin Decker’s The Demographic Load Doctrine: Population Growth, Agricultural Land Loss, Water Scarcity, and Consumer Price Stability Through 2100. The figure is an author-generated conceptual model illustrating how population growth may increase aggregate demand, interact with capacity systems, reduce strategic margin, transmit through production and distribution costs, and ultimately affect households and national resilience. The model is not presented as a predictive econometric forecast. Rather, it is a systems-level framework for visualizing how demographic load can propagate through farmland availability, water scarcity, infrastructure load, energy demand, housing demand, and transportation demand before appearing as higher production, processing, transportation, and retail costs. The figure further connects household-level effects—food prices, housing prices, water bills, and energy costs—to broader resilience concerns, including reduced disposable income, reduced economic flexibility, higher public stress, greater institutional demand, and reduced strategic margin. The figure is informed by federal demographic, agricultural, economic, and homeland-security frameworks, including U.S. Census Bureau population projections; USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service farmland data; USDA Economic Research Service research on agricultural productivity and water scarcity; Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer-price data; and foundational national-security and resilience documents: DHS, NIPP 2013: Partnering for Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience; Presidential Policy Directive 21, Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience; FEMA, National Preparedness Goal; DHS, DHS Resilience Framework; CISA, Critical Infrastructure Sectors; CISA, National Critical Functions; DHS, Threats to Food and Agriculture Resources; and FEMA, National Resilience Guidance. This artifact supports the paper’s central claim that population policy should be evaluated as capacity policy. Its purpose is to provide a visual bridge between demographic projections, physical production constraints, consumer-price transmission, and national resilience analysis.