Replication Data for \"Grist to the Mill of Subversion: Strikes and Coups in Counterinsurgencies\"

Why are acts of organized resistance associated with coups? Inspired by the Arab Spring, a large literature suggests that militaries confronted with civil resistance tend to side with protesters and oust their government. In the historically most coup-prone environment of insurgencies, however, alliances between the military and protesters are implausible because soldiers suspect insurgents behind social dissent. Disentangling different types of resistance, this article analyzes whether and how strikes, demonstrations, riots, and guerrilla attacks affect the military's disposition and ability to stage a coup during counterinsurgencies. We argue that only strikes trigger coup attempts. Soldiers interpret strikes as manifestations of a strengthening subversive enemy that threatens their victory over insurgents, while economic elites support a coup in the hope that the military will terminate costly walkouts. This interest alignment fosters military takeovers. We provide case-study evidence from Cold War Argentina and Venezuela to show our suggested mechanism at work. Demonstrating the scope of our argument, we quantitatively analyze coup attempts in counterinsurgency worldwide (1950-2005). Results show that strikes increase wartime coup risk, whereas demonstrations, riots, and guerrilla attacks do not. The findings highlight the backfiring potential of nonviolent resistance with important implications for post-coup political orders and democratization prospects.为何有组织抵抗行动与政变存在关联？受阿拉伯之春（Arab Spring）启发，大量研究文献指出，面对民众抵抗的军方往往会倒向抗议者一方，推翻本国政府。然而，在历史上政变高发的叛乱环境中，军方与抗议者结成同盟却难以成立——因为士兵会认为社会异议背后暗藏叛乱分子。本文通过区分不同类型的抵抗行动，分析在平叛行动中，罢工、示威、骚乱以及游击袭击是否以及如何影响军方发动政变的倾向与能力。本文主张，唯有罢工才会引发政变企图。士兵会将罢工视为颠覆性敌人实力增强的表现——这类敌人正威胁着己方平叛的胜利成果；而经济精英则支持政变，寄望军方终结代价高昂的罢工行动。这种利益契合推动了军方夺权行为的发生。本文借助冷战时期阿根廷与委内瑞拉的案例研究证据，验证了所提出的作用机制。为论证本文论点的适用范围，本文对1950年至2005年间全球范围内平叛行动中的政变企图进行了量化分析。分析结果显示，罢工会提升战时政变风险，而示威、骚乱及游击袭击则无此影响。本研究结果凸显了非暴力抵抗可能产生的适得其反的效果，这对政变后的政治秩序与民主化前景均具有重要启示意义。