Uncertainty varies strongly over time, rising by 50% to 100% in recessions and by up to 200% after major economic and political shocks. This paper shows that higher uncertainty reduces the responsiven
We examine the growth promoting roles of R&D, international R&D spillovers, and trade in a world econometric model. A country can raise its total factor productivity by investing in R&D. But countries
Investment in equipment and structures is one of the most cyclical components of GDP, a fact often associated with a negative response to heightened uncertainty in recessions. R&D investment, by contr
We estimate the long-term effect of public R&D on growth in manufacturing by analyzing new data from the Cold War era Space Race. We develop a novel empirical strategy that leverages US-Soviet rivalry