ReBASE – 20CRv3 Storyline Dataset Submission to WCRP EPESC CEAA: 2022 Pakistan Floods
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This store contains the ReBASE (https://ed-hawkins.github.io/ReBASE) submission from the University of Reading and the University of Edinburgh to WCRP EPESC CEAA. It provides factual and counterfactual event data from 80-member 20CRv3 storyline simulations for the 2022 Pakistan floods, defined using rainfall over central Pakistan. Factual and counterfactual members are not paired. Experiments: Factual simulations use observed SST and sea ice. Counterfactual simulations are based on a 1950s climate: these include spatially and seasonally varying perturbations to the SSTs, a 1950s climatology sea ice field, and 1950s CO2 levels. The factual–counterfactual global warming level difference is 1K. Event definitions (both over 24–33°N, 65–71°E, cosine-latitude-weighted spatial average): Short timescale (rx5day): the maximum 5-day accumulated rainfall (Rx5day) within 19–29 August 2022, in mm. Daily totals from 3-hourly precipitation rates were spatially averaged before the 5-day running sum was taken. Seasonal timescale (ja): the July–August 2022 mean daily rainfall, in mm day⁻¹. Data tiers Tier 1 (ReBASE_20CRv3_tier1.nc): change in event intensity (factual minus counterfactual ensemble mean) as dI_rx5day (mm) and dI_ja (mm day⁻¹), along the statistic dimension (length 1, “mean”). Sample size is 80 factual and 80 counterfactual members. No credible intervals are provided. Tier 2 (ReBASE_20CRv3_tier2.nc): raw event samples for the 80 members along number: rx5day_f, rx5day_cf (mm) and ja_f, ja_cf (mm day⁻¹). Tier 3 (ReBASE_20CRv3_tier3.nc): member-level fields over -10–60°N, 40–160°E, with dimensions longitude, latitude, time (length 1, temporal averages) and number. Each field is provided for factual (_f) and counterfactual (_cf) conditions and both timescales. _rx5day is the average over the five days ending on each member’s own Rx5day peak day, and _ja is the 1 July–31 August average (e.g., gh_rx5day_f, ivt_ja_cf). Fields: gh (500-hPa geopotential height, m), msl (mean sea-level pressure, Pa), u200 (200-hPa zonal wind, m s⁻¹), u850 and v850 (850-hPa zonal and meridional wind, m s⁻¹), sst (sea surface temperature, K), pwat (precipitable water / total column water vapour, kg m⁻²) and ivt (integrated vapour transport, 1000–300 hPa, kg m⁻¹ s⁻¹). Scalar gwl gives the 1K warming-level difference. A 1991–2020 climatology is not included because the available 20CRv3 data cover 2014–2024. Contacts: Vikki Thompson, University of Edinburgh (vikki.thompson@ed.ac.uk); Derrick Danso, NCAS, University of Reading (d.k.danso@reading.ac.uk)
