ABSTRACT The article investigates the conditions that enable the creation and evolution of Brazilian startups in the context of uncertainties and instability of the country’s economy since 2010. The
We propose uncertainty shocks as a new shock that drives business cycles. First, we demonstrate that microeconomic uncertainty is robustly countercyclical, rising sharply during recessions, particular
This is the replication package for \"Uncertainty Premia, Sovereign Default Risk, and State-Contingent Debt,\" accepted in 2022 by the Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics.
This paper explores how changes in macroeconomic uncertainty have affected the decision to reply to the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB’s SPF). The results suggest that
We develop a theory of endogenous uncertainty and business cycles in which short-lived shocks can generate long-lasting recessions. In the model, higher uncertainty about fundamentals discourages inve