The market price-dividend ratio is highly correlated with several macroeconomic variables, particularly inflation and labor market variables, but not with aggregate consumption and GDP. We incorporate
Changes in six-month bill rates over semiannual periods in the 1960s and 1970s are successfully related to expected changes and to surprises. The latter include unanticipated changes in expected infla
Factors estimated from large macroeconomic panels are being used in an increasing number of applications. However, little is known about how the size and the composition of the data affect the factor
This article develops an adaptive group lasso estimator for factor models with both global and group-specific factors. The global factors can affect all variables, whereas the group-specific factors a
This paper develops a procedure for uncovering the common cyclical factors that drive a mix of stationary and nonstationary variables. The method does not require knowing which variables are nonstatio