Capacity to estimate and detect a 35% reduction in HIV incidence in the Southern African communities of Project Accept using the BED-CEIA alone, the avidity assay alone, and two multi-assay algorithms (MAAs)^*.

*BED-CEIA: BED capture immunoassay (results expressed as normalized optical density units); AI: avidity assay (results expressed as a percentage, avidity index); CD4: CD4 cell count (results expressed as cells/mm3); VL: viral load (results expressed as HIV RNA copies/mL); Std: standard; RR: relative risk. The table shows the mean estimated intervention effect, empirical standard error of log estimated intervention effect, the power to detect the 35% difference in incidence, and the coverage of the 95% confidence intervals obtained by a simulation study under the stable epidemic scenario. The lower two rows show results for MAAs (see text); for these MAAs, individuals are classified as MAA positive if they have results for all for assays that are below/above the cutoffs indicated.