Scarcity, Auction Revenues and the Financing of the European Transition: A Consistency Check for the EU ETS (Companion data)

This dataset is the companion data file for the paper "Scarcity, Auction Revenues and the Financing of the European Transition: A Consistency Check for the EU ETS under the ETS Functioning and Directions for Mechanism Improvement report. It contains all inputs, intermediate values, and results underlying the paper's analysis of EU ETS auction revenues over 2031-2040. The file is a single CSV organised into seven labelled sections: (1) inputs and parameters (cap, LRF, CBAM factors, GDP, investment needs); (2) Low, Mid and High carbon-price scenarios in EUR/tCO₂; (3) cap, free allocation and auction volumes 2021-2040 in million EUA; (4) annual EU auction revenues by scenario; (5) country data for Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, the Netherlands and Sweden (GDP shares and historical EEX auction shares); (6) a country-year projection matrix 2031-2040; and (7) decade totals and coverage ratios. The paper finds that auction revenues cover only 1.7-4.0% of projected EU energy-system investment needs across the decade, with the volume effect of a tightening cap dominating the price effect from 2031 onwards. Coverage varies widely across Member States, from below 1% in France to about 8% in Poland under the mid scenario. Carbon-pricing effectiveness and transition-financing adequacy, therefore, emerge as related but structurally distinct policy objectives.