Forecasting with Uncertain Persistence
收藏数据链接：
官方服务：
资源简介：
With uncertainty about persistence, we show that forecasts necessarily become more persistent and over-react at long horizons. For these reasons, correctly specified and Bayesian forecasts may under-react at short horizons and over-react at long horizons. These results provide a unified explanation
提供机构：
美国国家经济研究局创建时间：
2026-07-01
