The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence 1875-1997
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This paper brings historical evidence to bear on the stylized fact that the yield curve predicts future growth. The spread between corporate bonds and commercial paper reliably predicts future growth over the period 1875-1997. This predictability varies over time, however, particularly across
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美国国家经济研究局创建时间：
2004-04-01
