Rain, recreation, and risk: Human activity and ecological disturbance create seasonal risk landscapes for the prey of an ambush predator

Predation risk and prey responses exhibit fluctuations in space and time. Seasonal ecological disturbances can alter landscape structure and permeability to influence predator activity and efficacy, creating predictable patterns of risk for prey (seasonal risk landscapes). This may create corresponding seasonal shifts in antipredator behavior, mediated by species ecology and trade-offs between risk and resources. Yet, how human recreation interacts with seasonal risk landscapes and antipredator behavior remains understudied. Goals – In South Florida, we investigated the impact of a seasonal ecological disturbance, specifically flooding, which is inversely related to human activity, on interactions between Florida panthers (Puma concolor coryi) and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We hypothesized that human activity and ecological disturbances would interact with panther-deer ecology, resulting in the emergence of two distinct seasonal landscapes of predation risk and the corr..., Study Site We conducted our study in the Big Cypress Swamp physiographic region of southwestern Florida, encompassing the Florida Panther National Wildlife Refuge (FPNWR) and Big Cypress National Preserve, including Bear Island (BI) and the Addition Lands (AL; Fig 1, Supporting Information 1). This region served as the primary restoration zone for Florida panthers (US Fish and Wildlife 2008). It experienced distinct flooded and dry seasons (Fig 1), along with seasonal storms and hurricanes (Duever et al. 1994; Abernathy et al. 2019). The regional topography exhibited minimal relief, characterized by slight ridges separating flat basins interspersed with depressions that could retain standing water throughout the dry season. Public access varied across FPNWR, BI, and AL, with hiking trails being present in all areas and experiencing human site use. BI allowed off-road vehicle (ORV) access and hunting, while AL permitted public recreational access and limited hunting but prohibited ORV us..., R version 4.2.2Â捕食风险与猎物响应在时空维度上均存在波动。季节性生态扰动可改变景观结构与景观通透性，进而影响捕食者的活动与捕食效能，最终为猎物形成可预测的风险模式（即季节性风险景观）。此类扰动或通过物种生态学特性，以及风险与资源间的权衡关系，驱动猎物的反捕食行为出现相应的季节性转变。然而，当前学界对人类休闲活动如何与季节性风险景观、反捕食行为产生交互作用的研究仍较为匮乏。 研究目标——在美国佛罗里达州南部，我们针对与人类活动呈负相关的季节性生态扰动（即洪水事件），探究其对佛罗里达美洲狮（Puma concolor coryi）与白尾鹿（Odocoileus virginianus）种群间相互作用的影响。我们提出假设：人类活动与生态扰动将与美洲狮-鹿的生态学特性产生交互作用，最终形成两类截然不同的季节性捕食风险景观与…… 研究区域 本研究于美国佛罗里达州西南部的大柏树沼泽（Big Cypress Swamp）地貌区开展，研究范围涵盖佛罗里达美洲狮国家野生动物保护区（Florida Panther National Wildlife Refuge, FPNWR）与大柏树国家保留地，其中包含熊岛（Bear Island, BI）及附加土地（Addition Lands, AL；见图1、辅助信息1）。该区域是佛罗里达美洲狮的核心修复栖息地（美国鱼类与野生动物管理局，2008），存在显著的洪水季与旱季之分（见图1），同时受季节性风暴与飓风影响（Duever等，1994；Abernathy等，2019）。区域地形起伏极小，以低矮山脊分隔平坦盆地，盆地间散布洼地，可在旱季留存积水。 不同区域的公共准入规则存在差异：佛罗里达美洲狮国家野生动物保护区、熊岛与附加土地均设有徒步步道且存在人类使用行为。熊岛允许越野车辆（off-road vehicle, ORV）通行与狩猎活动，附加土地则允许公众休闲进入、可有限开展狩猎，但禁止越野车辆使用……本研究采用R 4.2.2版本完成数据分析。