Targets and Tactics: Testing for a Duality within Al Qaeda’s Network

One prevailing view treats Al Qaeda as a monolithic entity with a global network of affiliates. Yet, certain affiliates appear more committed to local political and territorial goals – parochial, not global, terrorists. We construct a classification scheme to differentiate affiliates conceptually and empirically, and then track their types over time. We sort Al Qaeda’s network of affiliates using a principal components analysis of terrorist attacks from 1988 to 2012. We show that this aids in identifying latent affiliate types, and interpreting shifts in behavior. We find that despite Al Qaeda’s anti-western rhetoric, there exists a global-parochial divide in which most affiliates are parochial – with anti-Western groups pursuing local political goals even when Western targets remain. By providing an empirical strategy to identify which affiliates are more or less aligned with global terrorism, this research holds implications for the literatures on terrorism and civil war, terrorism and democracy, and the effects of counterterrorism.主流观点将基地组织（Al Qaeda）视作一个拥有全球附属分支网络的单一化整体实体。然而，部分附属分支似乎更执着于本土政治与领土目标，属于本土型恐怖分子，而非全球型恐怖分子。本研究构建了一套分类框架，从概念与实证两个层面区分基地组织的各附属分支，并随时间推移追踪其类型变化。本研究基于1988年至2012年的恐怖袭击数据，通过主成分分析（Principal Components Analysis）对基地组织的附属分支网络进行分类排序。研究表明，该方法有助于识别潜藏的附属分支类型，并解析其行为转变逻辑。研究发现，尽管基地组织始终宣扬反西方言论，但其附属分支仍存在全球型与本土型的二分格局：多数分支属于本土型——即便西方目标仍存在，反西方团体仍以本土政治目标为核心诉求。本研究提供了一种实证研究策略，用以识别哪些附属分支更契合全球恐怖主义议程，这一成果对恐怖主义与内战、恐怖主义与民主以及反恐（Counterterrorism）成效等相关研究领域均具有重要启示。