Plan-m.e.r.-screening files under the generic DABM procedure, applied to urban planning regulations

Area-wide map of the Health Impact Screening score (GES) of heat stress in Flanders. The indicator is based on the number of heat wave degree days (°C.day) in Flanders in the year 2003, modelled for the Flemish environmental company (2018). The heat wave degree day (HGD) indicator indicates where and by how many degrees Celsius exceed the thresholds for minimum and maximum temperatures (18.2 °C and 29.6 °C respectively) indicated by the Federal Public Service for Public Health. For each site, the number of heat wave days is added for all days of the year 2003. To create the GES card, we use the 2003 HGD map, a very warm year which is also used as a reference in the Flemish Environment Company study (2018). It has been decided to use the map for an extreme year instead of an annual average map, because the health problems occur mainly during this type of summers, thus providing a good picture of the potential problem locations and not underestimating them. The GES classes were defined in this way: GES 2 = 0-20 (°C.day) = ‘reasonable’; GES 3 = 20-30 (°C.day) = “fairly moderate”; GES 4 = 30-40 (°C.day) = ‘moderate’; GES 5 = 40-60 (°C.day) = “very moderate”; GES 6 = 60-80 (°C.day) = “insufficient”; GES 7 = 80-100 (°C.day) = “well insufficient”; GES 8 > 100 (°C.day) = “very insufficient”. GES 6 corresponds to at least 60 heat wave degree days, a value occurring in Antwerp in the year 2003, which is known to have many casualties due to heat stress. However, a lower number of heat wave days also has negative health effects. The map can be used to detect potential problem areas for heat stress in Flanders. However, in addition to air temperature, radiation loads (both short-wave and long-wave), humidity and wind speed are important factors in determining heat stress and human thermal comfort. The modelling does not take this into account. The actually experienced heat stress can therefore be higher (e.g. local radiation from concrete or asphalt hardening) or lower (e.g. because of shade by trees).法兰德斯地区热应激健康影响筛查评分（Health Impact Screening score, GES）全域地图。该指标基于2003年法兰德斯地区的热浪度日数（Heat Wave Degree Day, HGD），由法兰德斯环境公司（2018）建模生成。热浪度日数（HGD）指标可展示超过比利时联邦公共卫生服务机构规定的最低与最高气温阈值（分别为18.2°C与29.6°C）的区域及升温幅度。针对每个监测点位，统计2003年全年所有热浪日的度日数总和。本次GES地图基于2003年HGD地图制作，2003年为异常炎热的年份，同时也是法兰德斯环境公司（2018）研究中采用的参考年份。相较于年均值地图，选择极端年份的地图作为数据源更为恰当，因为热相关健康问题多集中在这类夏季，该地图可准确反映潜在健康风险区域，且不会低估风险水平。GES等级划分标准如下：GES 2 = 0~20（°C·天），对应‘合理’；GES 3 = 20~30（°C·天），对应‘较为温和’；GES 4 = 30~40（°C·天），对应‘温和’；GES 5 = 40~60（°C·天），对应‘极温和’；GES 6 = 60~80（°C·天），对应‘不足’；GES 7 = 80~100（°C·天），对应‘严重不足’；GES 8 >100（°C·天），对应‘极严重不足’。GES 6等级对应至少60个热浪度日数，2003年安特卫普市即达到该数值，彼时因热应激引发的伤亡案例众多。即便热浪度日数更低，也会对健康产生负面影响。该地图可用于识别法兰德斯地区热应激的潜在风险区域。但需注意，除气温外，辐射负荷（短波与长波辐射）、湿度及风速也是影响热应激与人体热舒适度的重要因素，本次建模未纳入这些变量。因此实际体感热应激可能更高（例如混凝土或沥青路面的局部辐射升温）或更低（例如树木遮蔽形成的阴凉环境）。