GCAM-USA Scenarios for GODEEEP

GCAM-USA Scenarios for GODEEEP This dataset contains a set of twelve future (2020-2050) scenarios modeled by GCAM-USA for the GODEEEP project for the purpose of studying the effects of climate, socioeconomic change, technology change, current decarbonization incentives, and longer-term decarbonization policies on the U.S. energy-economy, the electricity grid, human well-being, and the environment. GCAM-USA is a version of the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) with state-level detail in the United States. GCAM-USA simulates the supply/demand dynamics and interactions of four systems (energy, water, agriculture and land use, and the economy) in 32 geopolitical regions in the world, including the 50 states and the District of Columbia within the U.S. It can be configured to include climate impacts on energy demands, water availability, and crop yields. The GCAM-USA scenarios for GODEEEP include business-as-usual (BAU) as well as net-zero (NZ) greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 policy scenarios. All the NZ policy scenarios include a carbon-free electricity system by 2035, also referred to as a "clean grid." Net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 requires a combination of solutions including carbon sequestration, new fuels, long- and short-term energy storage, and new technologies such as direct air capture that have not previously been included in GCAM-USA. The GCAM-USA scenarios for GODEEEP represent alternative combinations of assumptions for climate impacts, decarbonization policies, decarbonization incentives, and carbon capture and sequestration technology availability. GCAM-USA outputs are provided as XML databases, which can be read by the GCAM Model Interface or packages such as gcamreader for Python or gcamextractor for R. Summaries of each scenario are provided below. For additional discourse on the scenarios, see Ou et al 2023 and other upcoming papers to be announced on the GODEEEP website. Abbreviations used in scenario names and descriptions BAU: Business-As-Usual. These scenarios represent the continuation of policies from the recent past and include major state-level clean energy policies but do not include any federal policies or incentives for a clean grid or a net-zero economy. NZ: Net-Zero. These scenarios represent a U.S. decarbonization goal that requires a carbon-free electricity grid by 2035 and a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions economy by 2050. IRA: Inflation Reduction Act. These scenarios include the IRA incentives for energy efficiency as well as clean energy, transportation, and fuels between 2025 and 2035. CCS: Carbon Capture and Sequestration. These scenarios assume that electricity generators equipped with CCS technology are available, whereas the other scenarios assume CCS technology is unavailable. Climate. These scenarios include the dynamic effects of a climate pathway (RCP8.5) on heating and cooling degree days (HDD/CDD) in the period 2020-2050. Note that in scenarios without "climate" in their name, HDD/CDD are left static at their 2020 levels. SSP2: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2. A "middle of the road" socioeconomic pathway where population and economic growth trends follow historical patterns. Scenario Descriptions # Name Description 1 bau This scenario does not include any long-term federal policies requiring decarbonization. It does not include the IRA incentives. It assumes that CCS technologies are unavailable. The socioeconomic change assumptions are consistent with SSP2. No climate impacts are considered. 2 bau_climate This scenario does not include any long-term federal policies requiring decarbonization. It does not include the IRA incentives. It assumes that CCS technologies are unavailable. The socioeconomic change assumptions are consistent with SSP2. This scenario includes future climate impacts on heating and cooling degree days based on an RCP8.5 pathway. 3 bau_ccs This scenario does not include any long-term federal policies requiring decarbonization. It does not include the IRA incentives. It assumes that CCS technologies are available. The socioeconomic change assumptions are consistent with SSP2. No climate impacts are considered. 4 bau_ccs_climate This scenario does not include any long-term federal policies requiring decarbonization. It does not include the IRA incentives. It assumes that CCS technologies are available. The socioeconomic change assumptions are consistent with SSP2. This scenario includes future climate impacts on heating and cooling degree days based on an RCP8.5 pathway. 5 bau_ira_ccs This scenario does not include any long-term federal policies requiring decarbonization. It does include the IRA incentives. It assumes that CCS technologies are available. The socioeconomic change assumptions are consistent with SSP2. No climate impacts are considered. 6 bau_ira_ccs_climate This scenario does not include any long-term federal policies requiring decarbonization. It does include the IRA incentives. It assumes that CCS technologies are available. The socioeconomic change assumptions are consistent with SSP2. This scenario includes future climate impacts on heating and cooling degree days based on an RCP8.5 pathway. 7 nz This scenario includes a clean electricity grid in the U.S. by 2035 and a net-zero economy by 2050. It does not include the IRA incentives. It assumes that CCS technologies are unavailable. The socioeconomic change assumptions are consistent with SSP2. No climate impacts are considered. 8 nz_climate This scenario includes a clean electricity grid in the U.S. by 2035 and a net-zero economy by 2050. It does not include the IRA incentives. It assumes that CCS technologies are unavailable. The socioeconomic change assumptions are consistent with SSP2. This scenario includes future climate impacts on heating and cooling degree days based on an RCP8.5 pathway. 9 nz_ccs This scenario includes a clean electricity grid in the U.S. by 2035 and a net-zero economy by 2050. It does not include the IRA incentives. It assumes that CCS technologies are available. The socioeconomic change assumptions are consistent with SSP2. No climate impacts are considered. 10 nz_ccs_climate This scenario includes a clean electricity grid in the U.S. by 2035 and a net-zero economy by 2050. It does not include the IRA incentives. It assumes that CCS technologies are available. The socioeconomic change assumptions are consistent with SSP2. This scenario includes future climate impacts on heating and cooling degree days based on an RCP8.5 pathway. 11 nz_ira_ccs This scenario includes a clean electricity grid in the U.S. by 2035 and a net-zero economy by 2050. It does include the IRA incentives. It assumes that CCS technologies are available. The socioeconomic change assumptions are consistent with SSP2. No climate impacts are considered. 12 nz_ira_ccs_climate This scenario includes a clean electricity grid in the U.S. by 2035 and a net-zero economy by 2050. It does include the IRA incentives. It assumes that CCS technologies are available. The socioeconomic change assumptions are consistent with SSP2. This scenario includes future climate impacts on heating and cooling degree days based on an RCP8.5 pathway. Acknowledgement This research was supported by the Grid Operations, Decarbonization, Environmental and Energy Equity Platform (GODEEEP) Investment, under the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PNNL is a multi-program national laboratory operated for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by Battelle Memorial Institute under Contract No. DE-AC05-76RL01830.面向GODEEEP项目的GCAM-USA情景数据集 本数据集为GODEEEP项目构建了12组2020-2050年的未来情景，由GCAM-USA模型模拟生成，用于研究气候、社会经济变化、技术变革、当前脱碳激励政策以及长期脱碳政策对美国能源-经济系统、电网、人类福祉与环境的影响。 GCAM-USA是全球变化分析模型（Global Change Analysis Model，GCAM）的美国州级细化版本。该模型可模拟全球32个地缘政治区域（包含美国50个州及哥伦比亚特区）内四大系统——能源、水资源、农业与土地利用、经济的供需动态及相互作用。用户可配置模型，使其纳入气候对能源需求、水资源可获得性及作物产量的影响。 本次GODEEEP项目所用的GCAM-USA情景包含基准情景（Business-As-Usual，BAU）以及2050年实现温室气体净零排放的政策情景（Net-Zero，NZ）。所有NZ政策情景均要求2035年前建成无碳电力系统，亦称“清洁电网”。2050年实现温室气体净零排放需结合多种解决方案，包括碳封存、新型燃料、长短期储能以及此前未在GCAM-USA中纳入的直接空气捕获等新技术。本次GODEEEP项目的GCAM-USA情景，是气候影响、脱碳政策、脱碳激励政策以及碳捕集与封存（Carbon Capture and Sequestration，CCS）技术可用性等假设的不同组合方案。 GCAM-USA的输出结果以XML数据库形式提供，可通过GCAM模型接口或Python的gcamreader包、R的gcamextractor包读取。各情景的概要如下。如需了解更多情景相关论述，请参阅Ou等人2023年的研究以及后续将在GODEEEP官网发布的其他论文。 ### 情景名称与描述所用缩写 BAU：基准情景（Business-As-Usual）。此类情景延续近期政策，包含主要州级清洁能源政策，但未纳入任何联邦层面的清洁电网或净零经济相关政策与激励措施。 NZ：净零排放。此类情景以美国脱碳目标为前提，要求2035年前建成无碳电力系统，并于2050年实现经济体温室气体净零排放。 IRA：《通胀削减法案》（Inflation Reduction Act）。此类情景纳入2025-2035年间IRA针对能源效率、清洁能源、交通运输及燃料的激励政策。 CCS：碳捕集与封存（Carbon Capture and Sequestration）。此类情景假设配备CCS技术的发电机组可投入使用，其余情景则默认CCS技术不可用。 Climate：此类情景纳入2020-2050年间典型浓度路径8.5（Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5，RCP8.5）对应的气候路径对采暖度日数与制冷度日数（Heating and Cooling Degree Days，HDD/CDD）的动态影响。需注意，名称中不含“Climate”的情景，其HDD/CDD将保持2020年的静态水平。 SSP2：共享社会经济路径2（Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2，SSP2）。该情景属于“中间道路”型社会经济路径，人口与经济增长趋势遵循历史模式。 ### 情景详情 1. "bau"：本情景未纳入任何要求脱碳的长期联邦政策，未包含IRA激励措施，默认CCS技术不可用，社会经济假设符合SSP2框架，未考虑气候影响。 2. "bau_climate"：本情景未纳入任何要求脱碳的长期联邦政策，未包含IRA激励措施，默认CCS技术不可用，社会经济假设符合SSP2框架，纳入基于RCP8.5路径的未来气候对采暖与制冷度日数的影响。 3. "bau_ccs"：本情景未纳入任何要求脱碳的长期联邦政策，未包含IRA激励措施，假设CCS技术可投入使用，社会经济假设符合SSP2框架，未考虑气候影响。 4. "bau_ccs_climate"：本情景未纳入任何要求脱碳的长期联邦政策，未包含IRA激励措施，假设CCS技术可投入使用，社会经济假设符合SSP2框架，纳入基于RCP8.5路径的未来气候对采暖与制冷度日数的影响。 5. "bau_ira_ccs"：本情景未纳入任何要求脱碳的长期联邦政策，但包含IRA激励措施，假设CCS技术可投入使用，社会经济假设符合SSP2框架，未考虑气候影响。 6. "bau_ira_ccs_climate"：本情景未纳入任何要求脱碳的长期联邦政策，但包含IRA激励措施，假设CCS技术可投入使用，社会经济假设符合SSP2框架，纳入基于RCP8.5路径的未来气候对采暖与制冷度日数的影响。 7. "nz"：本情景要求美国于2035年前建成清洁电力电网、2050年实现经济体净零排放，未包含IRA激励措施，默认CCS技术不可用，社会经济假设符合SSP2框架，未考虑气候影响。 8. "nz_climate"：本情景要求美国于2035年前建成清洁电力电网、2050年实现经济体净零排放，未包含IRA激励措施，默认CCS技术不可用，社会经济假设符合SSP2框架，纳入基于RCP8.5路径的未来气候对采暖与制冷度日数的影响。 9. "nz_ccs"：本情景要求美国于2035年前建成清洁电力电网、2050年实现经济体净零排放，未包含IRA激励措施，假设CCS技术可投入使用，社会经济假设符合SSP2框架，未考虑气候影响。 10. "nz_ccs_climate"：本情景要求美国于2035年前建成清洁电力电网、2050年实现经济体净零排放，未包含IRA激励措施，假设CCS技术可投入使用，社会经济假设符合SSP2框架，纳入基于RCP8.5路径的未来气候对采暖与制冷度日数的影响。 11. "nz_ira_ccs"：本情景要求美国于2035年前建成清洁电力电网、2050年实现经济体净零排放，包含IRA激励措施，假设CCS技术可投入使用，社会经济假设符合SSP2框架，未考虑气候影响。 12. "nz_ira_ccs_climate"：本情景要求美国于2035年前建成清洁电力电网、2050年实现经济体净零排放，包含IRA激励措施，假设CCS技术可投入使用，社会经济假设符合SSP2框架，纳入基于RCP8.5路径的未来气候对采暖与制冷度日数的影响。 ### 致谢 本研究得到太平洋西北国家实验室（Pacific Northwest National Laboratory，PNNL）实验室导向研发（Laboratory Directed Research and Development，LDRD）项目下的电网运行、脱碳、环境与能源公平平台（GODEEEP）投资资助。PNNL是由巴特尔纪念研究所根据合同编号DE-AC05-76RL01830为美国能源部（U.S. Department of Energy，DOE）运营的多项目国家实验室。