Applying Knowledge Discovery in Databases to Canadian In Situ Oil Sands Extraction

Alberta’s oil sands play a critical role in Canada meeting its commitment to the Paris Climate Change Agreement. However, few studies published the actual operation data for extraction operations (schemes), especially fuel consumption data to accurately project greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for development and expansion of oil sands projects. In this study, we mined 2015–2018 operation data from over 29 million records in Petrinex via knowledge discovery in databases (KDD) process, and described GHG and fuel consumption patterns for 20 in situ oil sands extraction schemes (representing > 80% in situ extractions in 2018). The discovered patterns were interpreted by a range of performance indicators. From 2015 to 2018, GHG emission intensity (EI) for the schemes dropped by 7.5% from 0.6193 t CO2e/m3 bitumen (oil) to 0.5732 t CO2e/m3 bitumen. On the four-year average, the in situ oil sands extractions used 3.8632 m3 steam to produce 1 m3 of oil (3.8632 m3 steam / m3 oil) with a range of 1.8170 to 7.0628 m3 steam / m3 oil; consumed 0.0668 103m3 steam generator fuel (SGF) to produce 1 m3 of steam (0.0668 103m3 SGF/ m3 steam) with a range of 0.0288 to 0.0910 103m3 SGF/m3 steam; consumed 0.2995 103m3 of stationary combustion fuel (SCF) to produce 1 m3 of bitumen (0.2955 103m3 SCF/m3 bitumen) with a range of 0.1224 to 0.6176 103m3 SCF/m3 bitumen. The Peace River region had the highest solution gas oil ratio. The region produced 0.0819 103m3 of solution gas from 1 m3 of bitumen produced (0.0819 103m3 solution gas/m3 bitumen). On average, cyclic steam stimulation recovery method used 53.5% more steam to produce 1 m3 of bitumen and used 11.1% more SGF to produce 1 m3 of steam, compared to steam assisted gravity drainage recovery method. With the carbon price at C$30/t CO2e and Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude oil price at US$38.46/bbl, the GHG costs account for 0.33% to 8.81% of WCS crude price using Alberta’s emission benchmark. The study provides methods to mine the public database – Petrinex for studying GHG, energy, and water consumption by the oil and gas industry in Canada. The results also provide more accurate energy and emission intensity, which can be used for GHG life cycle assessment and compared with other energy extraction methods on a life cycle basis.阿尔伯塔省油砂矿在加拿大履行《巴黎气候变化协定》承诺方面发挥着关键作用。然而，目前鲜有公开发表的开采作业实际运行数据（含方案层面数据），尤其是可用于精准测算油砂项目开发与扩建过程中温室气体（Greenhouse Gas, GHG）排放的燃料消耗数据。本研究通过数据库知识发现（Knowledge Discovery in Databases, KDD）流程，从Petrinex数据库超2900万条记录中挖掘了2015至2018年的运行数据，并针对20个原位（in situ）油砂开采方案（占2018年原位开采量的80%以上）描述了温室气体与燃料消耗模式。研究通过一系列性能指标对所发现的规律进行了解释。2015年至2018年间，这些方案的温室气体排放强度（Emission Intensity, EI）从0.6193吨二氧化碳当量（Carbon Dioxide Equivalent, CO₂e）/立方米沥青降至0.5732吨二氧化碳当量/立方米沥青，降幅达7.5%。四年平均来看，原位油砂开采每生产1立方米原油需消耗3.8632立方米蒸汽，区间为1.8170至7.0628立方米蒸汽/立方米原油；每生产1立方米蒸汽需消耗0.0668×10³立方米蒸汽发生器燃料（Steam Generator Fuel, SGF），区间为0.0288至0.0910×10³立方米SGF/立方米蒸汽；每生产1立方米沥青需消耗0.2995×10³立方米固定燃烧燃料（Stationary Combustion Fuel, SCF），四年均值为0.2955×10³立方米SCF/立方米沥青，区间为0.1224至0.6176×10³立方米SCF/立方米沥青。和平河地区的溶解气油比最高，该地区每生产1立方米沥青可产出0.0819×10³立方米溶解气，即0.0819×10³立方米溶解气/立方米沥青。平均而言，与蒸汽辅助重力泄油法（Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage, SAGD）相比，循环蒸汽刺激法（Cyclic Steam Stimulation, CSS）每生产1立方米沥青多消耗53.5%的蒸汽，且每生产1立方米蒸汽多消耗11.1%的SGF。在碳价格为30加元/吨二氧化碳当量、加拿大西部精选原油（Western Canadian Select, WCS）价格为38.46美元/桶的情况下，按照阿尔伯塔省的排放基准测算，温室气体成本占WCS原油价格的比例为0.33%至8.81%。本研究提供了从公共数据库Petrinex中挖掘数据的方法，用于研究加拿大油气行业的温室气体、能源与水消耗情况；研究结果还提供了更为精准的能源与排放强度数据，可用于温室气体生命周期评估，并可在生命周期维度上与其他能源开采方法进行对比。