Results of model comparisons for effects of temperature and time on NEP based on AIC weight (w) and δAICC values.

Nested versions of the full model (Methods, Eq 12). Response variables are modeled as functions of temperature Twj for each tank j on week w relative to the mean temperature for tank j over all weeks (T in Kelvin), and trophic structure (Zj). Models included a random effect for the experimental unit—tanks with and without predators received the same power inputs. See Methods for additional details on modeling. The model was fit to 219 observations in 30 groups. The full model (NEPF) includes all terms, and models representing alternate hypotheses excluded terms indicated by “NA.” Values indicate model-estimated coefficients. Coefficients were pooled (Methods: Statistical analysis) to estimate slopes and intercepts for Figs 3 and 5.