Data and Code for 'Reinforcement is not enough to establish a viable population of the globally threatened Aquatic Warbler Acrocephalus paludicola at the margin of its breeding range'

Abstract Population viability analysis is a valuable tool to guide the reinforcement of endangered bird species. In migrants, demographic data required for population projections are often deficient, making reinforcement outcomes challenging to predict. The globally threatened Acrocephalus paludicola (Aquatic Warbler) is a long-distance migratory passerine that breeds in sedge fen mires in Central Europe and winters in sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, we used integrated population models to determine the demographic parameters that contributed to the past decline, and then explored different management scenarios to identify which combination of reinforcement, habitat restoration, and survival improvement are required for achieving a stable population in the future. The files in this repository contain the data and analytical code to replicate the results of the publication in Ornithological Applications (DOI: WE DON’T KNOW THIS YET). The version contained in this repository does not include updates and improvements that occurred after 29 November 2025.摘要 种群生存力分析（Population viability analysis）是指导濒危鸟类种群复壮的重要工具。对于迁徙鸟类而言，种群预测所需的种群统计数据往往较为匮乏，使得种群复壮的效果难以预测。全球受威胁物种水蒲苇莺（Acrocephalus paludicola, Aquatic Warbler）是一种长距离迁徙雀形目鸟类，其繁殖地位于中欧的薹草沼泽湿地，越冬地则在撒哈拉以南非洲。本研究采用集成种群模型（integrated population models），明确了导致其过往种群下降的种群统计参数；随后通过探索不同管理情景，确定了为实现未来种群稳定所需的复壮、栖息地修复与存活率提升的组合方案。本仓库内的文件包含可复现发表于《鸟类学应用》（Ornithological Applications）论文成果的相关数据与分析代码（DOI：暂未公布）。本仓库所包含的版本未纳入2025年11月29日之后的更新与改进内容。