Risk assessment of bark beetle mass multiplications in the Gesäuse National Park

The aim of this project was the application of monitoring and risk estimation systems to present the target of this project, the application of monitoring and risk estimation systems for the presentation of potentially endangered sites and stocks in the area of Gesäuse National Park for printing printers as a decision-making aid for the derivation of adequate management strategies for the national park. The direct dependence of the development of the book printer on the temperature allows the creation of a model for monitoring and estimating the potential generation development in the field. Based on a regional topoclimate model, both the start of blackness in the spring, the timing of the creation of siblings and branch generations, as well as the breeding development and thus the potential number of generations/year with the bark beetle phenology model PHENIPS could be calculated. For the breeding development, the bark temperatures, which have been modeled according to the air temperature and solar radiation, are particularly relevant. The modelling and evaluation of potential generations gave the national park and its surroundings a very variable propagation potential of the printer every year, although in warm years, even in higher, subalpine locations, two generations can be successfully completed. The average number of generations per year is an essential parameter for estimating the predisposition for printing printers. The knowledge-based estimation system for deriving the predisposition of forest sites and stocks against Ips typographus is based on the assumption that the probability of infestation is influenced by the constellation of various environmental factors. In addition to the propagation potential of the book printer, local and existing factors such as precipitation conditions, geomorphology, spruce content, stock age (development phase), stock density as well as predisposition for storm and snow damage are used and weighted according to the cause. The assessment and mapping of the predisposition for bark beetle infestation or for storm and snow damage as triggering disturbance factors can be an essential decision-making aid for national park management in spatial planning, prioritisation and implementation of preventive forest conversion and curative forest protection measures.本项目旨在应用监测与风险评估系统，对格塞乌国家公园(Gesäuse National Park)区域内的潜在濒危林地与林分进行识别与展示，以此作为制定国家公园适宜管理策略的决策辅助工具，服务于目标林业害虫的监测与风险评估工作。 基于云杉八齿小蠹(Ips typographus)的发育与温度直接相关这一特性，可构建用于监测与评估野外潜在世代发育的模型。依托区域地形气候模型，借助树皮甲虫物候学模型PHENIPS，可计算得到多项关键物候参数：包括春季黑化始期、子代世代与分支世代的发生时间、种群繁殖发育情况，以及由此推导的年潜在世代数。在种群繁殖发育相关参数中，基于气温与太阳辐射模拟得到的树皮温度尤为关键。通过对潜在世代进行建模与评估，可发现国家公园及其周边区域的云杉八齿小蠹年传播潜力存在显著差异：在温暖年份，即使是海拔较高的亚高山生境，也可顺利完成两代种群发育。 年平均世代数是评估云杉八齿小蠹危害易感性的核心参数。本研究构建的基于知识的评估系统，用于推导林地与林分对云杉八齿小蠹(Ips typographus)的易感性，其核心假设为：虫害侵染概率受多种环境因子的综合影响。除云杉八齿小蠹的传播潜力外，该系统还纳入了多项本地现存因子，包括降水条件、地貌特征、云杉占比、林分年龄（发育阶段）、林分密度，以及风暴与雪灾损害易感性，并依据成因对各因子进行权重赋值。针对云杉八齿小蠹侵染、风暴与雪灾等触发型干扰因子的易感性进行评估与空间制图，可为国家公园管理部门在空间规划、优先序确定，以及预防性林分改造与营林保护措施的实施等工作中，提供关键的决策辅助支持。