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Figshare2025-06-11 更新2026-04-28 收录
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It is significant to explore the evolution pattern and driving mechanism of non-grain of cultivated land in the main grain-producing areas to promote the sustainable development of agriculture and guarantee national food security. Taking Lianyungang City in Jiangsu Province as an example, the study uses remote sensing image interpretation, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and geographically weighted regression model to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of non-grain of cultivated land, reveal the driving mechanism and formulate zonal regulation strategies. The results show that: (1) the level of non-grain of cultivated land in Lianyungang City increased gradually from 6.01% to 11.10% from 2002 to 2022, and grain cultivation was mainly shifted to greenhouse vegetables, construction and development and abandonment. (2) the level of non-grain of cultivated land showed a spatial pattern of high along the north-west-south-east and decreasing to the two sides, and the pattern showed a trend of gradual weakening, with Moran’s I decreased from 0.90 to 0.42. (3) The dominant factors of the spatial differentiation of non-grain of cultivated land in different periods are different, among which GDP, population density, NDVI, and precipitation are always the main influencing factors. The evolution of non-grain of cultivated land is a complex result of the joint action of resource endowment of farm households, location conditions, and economic policies. (4) The evolution of non-grain of cultivated land can be classified into single-factor-dominated, two-factor-dominated, and multifactorial effects. Three primary zones and differentiated zoning regulation strategies are proposed from three perspectives: subject synergy, government regulation, and system element enhancement. The study can provide a reference basis for promoting the protection and use of cultivated land and formulating differentiated agricultural management strategies in grain-producing areas similar to Lianyungang City.

探索粮食主产区耕地非粮化(non-grain of cultivated land)的演化规律与驱动机制,对推动农业可持续发展、保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。本研究以江苏省连云港市为研究案例区,采用遥感影像解译、空间自相关分析及地理加权回归模型,分析耕地非粮化的时空演化特征,揭示其驱动机制并制定分区调控策略。研究结果表明:(1) 2002—2022年,连云港市耕地非粮化水平从6.01%逐步升至11.10%,粮食种植主要转向设施蔬菜、非农建设及耕地撂荒;(2) 耕地非粮化水平呈现西北-东南高、两侧递减的空间格局,且该格局呈逐步弱化趋势,莫兰指数(Moran’s I)从0.90降至0.42;(3) 不同时期耕地非粮化空间分异的主导因素存在差异,其中GDP、人口密度、归一化植被指数(NDVI)及降水始终为主要影响因素;耕地非粮化演化是农户资源禀赋、区位条件与经济政策共同作用的复杂结果;(4) 耕地非粮化演化可划分为单因子主导、双因子主导及多因子驱动三种类型。本研究从主体协同、政府规制、要素赋能三个维度提出三大分区及差异化分区调控策略,可为类似连云港的粮食主产区推进耕地保护利用、制定差异化农业管理策略提供参考依据。

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2025-06-11
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