Coastal Flooding – Future (2130 SSP5 8.5H)

This dataset presents the extent of static coastal inundation under possible future sea level rise scenarios for multiple Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) events, and depth for a 1%AEP. The mapping identifies low-lying areas susceptible to flooding from elevated sea levels due to tides, storm surge, and projected sea level rise. Covers nine coastal inundation cells: Waimea Inlet Tāhunanui Rocks Road Nelson CBD Nelson Haven Boulder Bank to Pepin Island Delaware Bay estuary Delaware open coast Oananga Bay Mapping is based on elevation only and does not reflect flow paths or wave effects. Finalised April 2026, based on 2025 LiDAR and 2020-2024 modelling. Developed by Tonkin & Taylor Ltd for Nelson City Council and recorded as Nelson Coastal Inundation Mapping Update, Phase B (v1), December 2024 and Addendum, April 2026. Derived from 2025 LiDAR data and NIWA (2018) storm tide levels. Mapping uses a bathtub approach and does not account for overland flow paths, engineered structures, or future shoreline changes.